Main Article Content


This study was motivated by curiosity about the impact of world oil prices on the economy in Indonesia. The study was conducted in Indonesia and used secondary data from relevant agencies. The analytical technique used is multiple linear regression with time series data from 1992 to 2022. The results show simultaneous production variables, worldwide oil prices, growth, and exchange rates. have the same effect on export volumes. However, part of the production variable has a positive and significant impact, the world oil price variable has a positive but insignificant effect, the economic growth variable has a positive and significant impact, the exchange rate variable has a negative impact and insignificant to the volume of Indonesia's crude oil exports.


Production Price Economic Growth And Exchange Rate

Article Details

How to Cite
Lestari, F. A. P. (2023). Analysis of Crude Oil Price Determinants on Indonesia’s Export Volume for the Period 1992 -2022. Ilomata International Journal of Social Science, 4(4), 663-673.


  1. Adeleye, B. N., Adam, L. S., Ahmad, P., & Ola-David, O. (2022). Investigating tourism and exchange rate dynamics on economic growth in Sri Lanka. Journal of Policy Research in Tourism, Leisure and Events.
  2. Baek, J., & Choi, Y. J. (2021). Do fluctuations in crude oil prices have symmetric or asymmetric effects on the real exchange rate? Empirical evidence from Indonesia. World Economy, 44(1), 312–325.
  3. Baek, J., & Kim, H.-Y. (2020). On the relation between crude oil prices and exchange rates in sub-saharan African countries: A nonlinear ARDL approach. Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 29(1), 119–130.
  4. Baek, J., & Young, T. B. (2021). A new look at the crude oil prices and economic growth nexus: asymmetric evidence from Alaska. Mineral Economics, 34(3), 339–344.
  5. Barguellil, A. (2021). The asymmetric indirect impact of real exchange rate on economic growth through foreign trade: An asymmetric ARDL panel model. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 11(8), 658–671.
  6. Budi, P. S., Fauziah, D. W., & Prihatminingtyas, B. (2021). The Effect of Price Behaviour on Indonesian CPO Export Quantity. Agrisocionomics Jurnal Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian, 5(1), 34–39.
  7. Chen, Y., Xu, J., & Hu, M. (2022). Asymmetric volatility spillovers and dynamic correlations between crude oil price, exchange rate and gold price in BRICS. Resources Policy, 78.
  8. Drebee, H. A., & Razak, N. A. A. (2022). Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations on Economic Growth, Financial Development, and Exchange Rate in Iraq: Econometric Approach. Industrial Engineering and Management Systems, 21(1), 110–118.
  9. Farhana, S. S., Khan, S., & Rauf, A. (2017). Causality Analysis between Export, Imports and Economic Growth of Pakistan. Journal of Applied Economics and Business Studies, 1(1), 45–52.
  10. Fitri, V. L., Sofyan, M., & Yasaningthias, G. (2022). Pengaruh Inflasi, Jumlah Uang Beredar dan Suku Bunga Bank Indonesia terhadap Nilai Tukar Rupiah Tahun 2013-2021. Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis, 2(6), 831–841.
  11. Ghazouani, T. (2021). Impact of FDI inflow, crude oil prices, and economic growth on CO2 emission in Tunisia: Symmetric and asymmetric analysis through ARDL and NARDL approach. Environmental Economics, 12(1), 1–13.
  13. Jayathilaka, R., Rathnayake, R., Jayathilake, B., Dharmasena, T., Bodinayake, D., & Kathriarachchi, D. (2023). Exploring the growth direction: the impact of exchange rate and purchasing managers index on economic growth in Sri Lanka. Quality and Quantity, 57(3), 2687–2703.
  14. Kotler, P., & Amstrong, G. (2018). Prinsip-Prinsi Pemasaran. Erlangga.
  15. Kurniasari, F., & Monica, L. (2019). Pengaruh Nilai Tukar,Suku Bunga Indonesia dan Produk Domestik Bruto terhadap Volume Ekspor Impor di Indonesia. Journalof Business and Applied Management, 12(1), 1–106.
  16. Lechthaler, F., & Leinert, L. (2019). Moody oil: What is driving the crude oil price? Empirical Economics, 57(5), 1547–1578.
  17. Mahrani, D. R., & Efendi, B. (2022). Teori Ekspor : Studi Kasus : Ekspor Indonesia ke Negara ASEAN. In LPPM UNDIKMA. LPPM UNDIKMA.
  18. Nguyen, A. T. (2022). The relationship between crude oil prices, energy consumption, trade openness and economic growth: An empirical study on Vietnam. Journal of International Studies, 15(2), 94–106.
  19. Olamide, E., Ogujiuba, K., & Maredza, A. (2022). Exchange Rate Volatility, Inflation and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: Panel Data Approach for SADC. Economies, 10(3).
  20. Patrick, O. (2019). Crude oil price, monetary policy and output performance of Africa oil producing countries. Journal of African Union Studies, 8(3), 51–66.
  21. Santoso, R., Haryadi, & Artis, D. (2022). Analisis Faktor-faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Ekspor Minyak Kelapa Sawit Indonesia ke Uni Eropa. Jurnal Perdagangan Industri Dan Moneter, 10(1).
  22. Setiyawan, V. P. (2022). Analisis Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Volume Ekspor Batubara Indonesia Tahun 2015-2020. Jurnal Kebijakan Ekonomi Dan Keuangan, 1(1).
  23. Setryari, Ni. P. . W. (2017). Trend Produktivitas Industri Produk Ekspor Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Kuantitatif Terapan, 10(1).
  24. Shang, J., & Hamori, S. (2021). Do crude oil prices and the sentiment index influence foreign exchange rates differently in oil-importing and oil-exporting countries? A dynamic connectedness analysis. Resources Policy, 74.
  25. Singhal, S., Choudhary, S., & Biswal, P. C. (2019). Return and volatility linkages among International crude oil price, gold price, exchange rate and stock markets: Evidence from Mexico. Resources Policy, 60, 255–261.
  26. Sugiyono. (2021). Metode Penelitian Kuantitatif Kualitatif dan R&D (2nd ed.).
  27. Sukirno, S. (2019). Makroekonomi: Teori Pengantar (25th ed.). Rajawali Pers.
  28. Tampubolon, J. (2020). Perdagangan dan Bisnis Internasional : Teori dan Analisis Empiris. In Deepublish Publisher.
  29. Taufiq, M., & Natasah, Nu. A. (2019). Analisis Pengaruh Nilai Tukar Terhadap Komoditas Unggulan Indonesia. Jurnal Dinamika Ekonimi, 2(1).
  30. Ur Rahiman, H., & Kodikal, R. (2019). Ups and downs in the indian economy: The impact of crude oil prices. International Journal of Scientific and Technology Research, 8(8), 846–857.