The Continuity Of ASEAN-6 Capital Market Integration Evaluation: The VECM and Granger Causality Approach
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.61194/ijtc.v7i3.2261Keywords:
ASEAN capital market integration, cointegration, vecm, composite stock price indexAbstract
This study examines the co-integration relationships among stock indices in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), with attention to potential changes in market dynamics following the implementation of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) in 2015. Rather than formally testing for structural breaks, this research employs a two-period comparative framework to assess differences in long-run equilibrium and short-run dynamics before and after the AEC. Using weekly composite stock price indices from six ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam), the analysis is divided into two periods: pre-AEC (2011–2016) and post-AEC (2017–2024). The study applies a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), threshold cointegration tests, and Granger causality analysis to capture both symmetric and asymmetric adjustments as well as directional relationships. The results indicate that co-integration persists among five markets, excluding Vietnam, with asymmetric short-run adjustments and symmetric long-run convergence. Furthermore, the post-AEC period shows a stronger and more extensive pattern of bidirectional causal linkages, suggesting an increase in financial integration across the region. Overall, the findings suggest that the period following the AEC is associated with stronger regional financial interconnectedness, rather than providing definitive evidence of a structural break. This study underscores the relevance of regional policy initiatives in shaping capital market dynamics and offers insights into how economic integration may be reflected in financial market relationships.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Harry Budintoro, Hendryadi, Syahrul Effendi, Faris Faruqi
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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
